Texas El Niño winter plan: floods, tornadoes, power outages

Last reviewed: Nov 5, 2026

Follow your local authorities. In an emergency call 999/911.

This page puts the steps in the order to do them and points to the official tool for each. The full costed checklist for a family of four is on the Texas checklist page.

What El Niño changes in Texas

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) discussion issued 8 October 2026 says: "El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance)." It adds: "With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies)." (NOAA CPC, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion). We add no odds of our own. For the national picture see Is El Niño coming to my state?.

We found no official Texas-specific El Niño impact text, so we give no Texas flood or outage probability (see Gaps). What we can do is point to the hazards the National Weather Service (NWS) and Texas agencies already warn about, and put them in order.

The hazards that matter this winter

Flash floods. "Oftentimes flash floods can occur within minutes and sometimes without any sign of rain." (NWS, Before a Flood). "A flash flood is a sudden violent flood that can take from minutes to hours to develop." "It is even possible to experience a flash flood in areas not immediately receiving rain." (NWS, Flood Watch vs Warning).
Tornadoes. "Tornado Watch: Be Prepared!" "Tornado Warning: Take Action!" (NWS, Understand Tornado Alerts).
Power outages and carbon monoxide. "CO is found in combustion fumes, such as those produced by small gasoline engines, stoves, generators, lanterns, and gas ranges, or by burning charcoal and wood." (CDC, power outages, Aug. 26, 2026).

Your plan, in order

Now

Know your risk. NWS asks: "Is your home, business or school in a floodplain? Where is water likely to collect on the roadways you most often travel? What is the fastest way to get to higher ground?" (NWS, Before a Flood).
Turn on the alerts. "With a unique sound and vibration, Wireless Emergency Alerts keep you in the know, wherever you are." "No signup is required!" (NWS, Wireless Emergency Alerts). Add your local sign-up. In the Austin area, the City of Austin says: "Warn Central Texas covers a 10-county region to include: Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, Travis, and Williamson." (City of Austin, Stay Informed). In Harris County, the ReadyHarris site has a link labeled "Sign up for alerts" (ReadyHarris). Elsewhere, ask your county emergency management office.
Register if you need help to evacuate. "The STEAR program is a free registry that provides local emergency planners and emergency responders with additional information on the needs in their community." The TDEM page's list includes "People with disabilities" and "People who are medically fragile". How to register: "Register Online at the State of Texas Emergency Assistance Registry website" or "Dial 2-1-1 or use your video telephone relay option of choice to contact 211 at 877-541-7905 (Texas Information Referral Network)". "Registering yourself in the STEAR registry DOES NOT guarantee that you will receive a specific service during an emergency." "Available services will vary by community." "For more information on how your community will use information in the STEAR registry, contact your local emergency management office." (TDEM, STEAR).
Ask about flood insurance. See "Insurance in one paragraph" below. "Many flood insurance policies take at least 30 days to go into effect so even if you can buy it as a storm is approaching, it may not protect your investment." (NWS, Before a Flood).
Fit carbon monoxide alarms. "Install battery-operated or battery back-up CO detectors near every sleeping area in your home." "Replace your CO detector following the manufacturer's instructions or every 5 years." (CDC, CO poisoning basics, Oct. 26, 2026).
Copy your papers. Texas Ready says: "Avoid difficult situations by making copies of your important documents and keeping them in a waterproof bag." (Texas Ready, supply checklist).

Within 2 weeks

Water. Texas Ready's checklist lists "1 gallon of water per day for each person and pet" (Texas Ready, supply checklist). The CDC says: "Store at least 1 gallon of water per person, per day for 3 days." "Try to store a 2-week supply if possible." "Consider storing more water than this for pregnant women, people who are sick, pets, or if you live in a hot climate." (CDC, emergency water supply). For pets, Texas Ready says: "Your pets will require water for hydration—at least one gallon per day, per animal." (Texas Ready, pets). The checklist page shows the quantity for a family of four.
Food and light. Texas Ready's checklist lists "3-day supply of non-perishable food, such as canned or pouched food", "Manual can opener", "Flashlights and extra batteries" and "Battery-powered radio with extra batteries or crank radio (emergency alert radio is best)" (Texas Ready, supply checklist). NWS says: "NWR broadcasts official Weather Service warnings, watches, forecasts and other hazard information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week." (NWS, NOAA Weather Radio).
Keep a kit for evacuating by car. Texas Ready's checklist includes "Clothes and sturdy shoes" and "Rain gear and towels". Its "Before you leave home" list includes "Fill your gas tank, and check your spare tire", "Take cash, checkbook, and credit cards" and "Charge your mobile phone" (Texas Ready, supply checklist).
Baby items and pets. Texas Ready's checklist includes "Baby items (baby food, formula, bottles, diapers)" (Texas Ready, supply checklist). The Texas Ready pets page lists "Pet supplies such as food, medications, special needs", "Identification tags", "Crating needs", "Transportation needs" and "Vaccination records and/or tags, especially for rabies vaccine". It adds: "Most shelters, but not all, will have a location to shelter animals" (Texas Ready, pets).
Heating and CO. "Have your heating system, water heater, and any other gas, oil, or coal burning appliances serviced by a qualified technician every year." "Never use a generator inside your home or garage, even if doors and windows are open." "Only use generators outside, more than 20 feet away from any windows, doors, and vents." "When using a generator, use a battery-powered or battery backup CO detector in your home." (CDC, CO poisoning basics).
Pipes. TDI says: "Wrap outdoor and indoor pipes in unheated areas (like a clothes washer in your garage)." "Remove water hoses and wrap outdoor pipes." "If your pipes freeze, turn off the water at the shutoff valve." (TDI, winter storms).
Sandbags, if you have them. NWS says: "If you have access to sandbags or other materials, use them to protect your home from flood waters if you have sufficient time to do so." "Filling sandbags can take more time than you may think." (NWS, Before a Flood). Also from NWS: "Have a professional install check-valves in plumbing to prevent flood waters from backing up into the drains of your home." "Make sure your sump pump is working and consider having a backup." "Make sure your electric circuit breakers, or fuses, are clearly marked for each area of your home." (NWS, Before a Flood).

When a warning is issued

Learn the words before you need them. "A Flood Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for flooding." "It does not mean flooding will occur, but it is possible." "A Flood Warning is issued when flooding is imminent or occurring." "A Flash Flood Warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring." "If you are in a flood prone area move immediately to high ground." (NWS, Flood Watch vs Warning).
If it is likely your home will flood. "If it is likely your home will flood, don't wait for evacuation order, get out!" (NWS, After a Flood).
Tornado Watch. "Tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area." "Review and discuss your emergency plans, take inventory of your supplies and check your safe room." Tornado Warning. "A tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar." "Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building." "Avoid windows." (NWS, Understand Tornado Alerts). More in Watch vs warning and Evacuation terms.

During

Turn Around, Don't Drown. "A mere 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock over an adult." "It takes just 12 inches of rushing water to carry away most cars and just 2 feet of rushing water can carry away SUVs and trucks." "Never drive around the barriers blocking a flooded road." (NWS, Turn Around Don't Drown).
In a tornado warning at home. "If you are in a tornado warning, go to your basement, safe room, or an interior room away from windows." "Don't forget pets if time allows." For outdoors, NWS says: "Sheds and storage facilities are not safe." "Neither is a mobile home or tent." (NWS, What to do During a Tornado).
Outage food rule. "Keep refrigerator and freezer doors closed as much as possible while the power is out." "A full freezer will keep food safe for 48 hours (24 hours if half-full) without power if you don't open the door." "Your refrigerator will keep food safe for up to 4 hours without power if you don't open the door." (CDC, power outages, Aug. 26, 2026).
Stay warm safely. "Never use a gas range or oven to heat a home." "Never use a charcoal grill, hibachi, lantern, or portable camping stove inside a home, tent, or camper." "If conditions are too hot or too cold, seek shelter with friends or at a community shelter." (CDC, power outages).
Medicines. "When the power is out for a day or more, throw away any medication that should be refrigerated, unless the drug's label says otherwise." "If a life depends on the refrigerated drug, but the medications have been at room temperature, use them only until a new supply is available." (CDC, power outages).
Carbon monoxide symptoms. "The most common symptoms of CO poisoning are headache, dizziness, weakness, upset stomach, vomiting, chest pain, and confusion." (CDC, CO poisoning basics). "If someone shows signs of having carbon monoxide poisoning, call 911 or your local Poison Control Center at 1-800-222-1222 or consult a health care professional right away." (CDC, power outages).

After

"Floodwaters often become contaminated with sewage or chemicals." "Gas leaks and live power lines can be deadly, but are not obvious at first glance." "Do not visit disaster areas." "Road closure and other cautionary signs are put in place for your safety." (NWS, After a Flood).
TDI says: "It’s generally OK to make temporary repairs." "Don’t make permanent repairs until you’ve talked to your insurance company." "But take pictures of the damage before doing any work." (TDI, FAQ: homeowners insurance and disaster claims).
"Carbon monoxide poisoning is one of the leading causes of death after storms when areas are dealing with power outages." "Never use a portable generator inside your home or garage." (NWS, After a Flood).

Alerts and who to call

| For | Contact | Source | |---|---|---| | Emergency | 911 | The safety line above | | Carbon monoxide poisoning | Poison Control Center 1-800-222-1222 | CDC | | STEAR registration by phone | 2-1-1 or 877-541-7905 (Texas Information Referral Network) | TDEM, STEAR | | 211 Texas | Dial 2-1-1, or (877) 541-7905 | 211 Texas | | TDI Help Line | TDI Help Line 800-252-3439 | TDI |

We list no utility outage number (see Gaps we know about).

Insurance in one paragraph

NWS says: "Since standard homeowners insurance doesn't cover flooding, ensure coverage by contacting your insurance company or agent to purchase flood insurance." "This must be done before there is even a threat of flooding as insurance companies stop issuing policies if there is a threat of flooding." (NWS, Before a Flood). FloodSmart.gov, the National Flood Insurance Program site, says: "Your flood insurance coverage will go into effect 30 days after your date of purchase." "There are four exceptions to this rule:" and one of them is "There is no wait if you buy flood insurance while making, increasing, extending or renewing a mortgage." (FloodSmart, buy a policy). That 30-day gap is why insurance sits in the "Now" list. For burst pipes, TDI says: "Ask your agent if your home or renters policy covers sudden and accidental water damage." "Flood insurance doesn’t pay for damage caused by burst pipes." (TDI, winter storms).

More guides

Gaps we know about

Texas-specific El Niño impacts. We found no official Texas page linking El Niño to Gulf moisture, flash floods or winter rain, and the Texas homepages we checked (Texas Ready, TDEM, TDI, DSHS) had no El Niño text. We have not searched every Texas agency page. The flood and tornado advice above rests on NWS pages that do not mention El Niño.
Winter power reliability. We give no outage frequency or grid outlook. The ERCOT site returned a bot-block (403) on 2026-11-05, and we make no forecast of our own.
Utility outage numbers. CenterPoint's outage page returned 404 and we copied no number for Oncor or Austin Energy. Check your own utility's site.
Ready.gov and Red Cross pages. Both returned 403 on 2026-11-05 and are not cited. General kit and family-plan advice is covered only by the Texas Ready, NWS and CDC pages above.
Water total for four people and a 14-day pantry. No page we read states a total for a family of four or a 14-day pantry, so we give none; the checklist page holds the quantities.
Sandbag quantity. The NWS page gives no quantity. Ask your county emergency management office.
Other county alert sign-ups. We cite only the Austin-area and Harris County sign-ups. Ask your county emergency management office for yours.
FEMA flood maps and NFIP status. We did not read FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or reauthorization page today. Ask your county emergency management office about mapped flood risk, and confirm NFIP status with your insurer or agent.
NFIP reauthorization date. We did not find or verify the date on which NFIP authority runs out, so the page states none.
Costs. We list no prices on this page. The checklist page holds the cost figures.