Florida this winter: El Niño plan for floods, tornadoes, outages

Last reviewed: Nov 5, 2026

Follow your local authorities. In an emergency call 999/911.

This page is about this winter's risks, not hurricanes: rain floods, tornadoes, rip currents and power cuts. It puts the steps in the order to do them and links the official page for each. The full costed checklist for a family of four is on the Florida checklist page.

What El Niño changes in Florida

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) discussion dated 8 October 2026 says: "El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance)." (NOAA CPC, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion). We do not add odds of our own. For the national picture, see Is El Niño coming to my state?.

The National Weather Service office in Tallahassee says: "El Niño generally brings above average precipitation to Florida during Fall-Winter-Spring...reduced risk of wildfires...higher risk of flooding." It also says: "Increased storminess across the southern U.S. increases the threat of severe weather in Florida during El Niño winters." and "The El Niño severe weather signal is most pronounced in central and south Florida." (NWS Tallahassee, El Niño page).

The hazards that matter this winter

Rain floods. "During a flood, water levels and the rate the water is flowing can quickly change." "It only takes 6 inches of moving water to knock you off your feet." "12 inches of water can float a car or small SUV, 18 inches of water can carry away large vehicles." (NWS, During a Flood).
Tornadoes. "Tornado Watch: Be Prepared! Tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area." "Tornado Warning: Take Action! A tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar." "Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows." (NWS, Understand Tornado Alerts).
Rip currents. "Rip currents often form on calm, sunny days." "Check water conditions before going in by looking at the local beach forecast before you leave for the beach and talking to the lifeguard at the beach." "Only swim at a beach with lifeguards." (NWS, rip currents). We found no official page tying rip currents to El Niño, so we make no such claim.
Power cuts and carbon monoxide. "When power outages occur during emergencies such as hurricanes or winter storms, the use of alternative sources of fuel or electricity for heating, cooling, or cooking can cause CO to build up in a home, garage, or camper and to poison the people and animals inside." (CDC, power outages).

Your plan, in order

Now

Your zone. Florida's Know Your Zone page says: "Know Your Zone - Find if your address is in one of the colored evacuation zones (these are flood zones)". It also says: "Typically Zone A is the most vulnerable and the most likely to evacuate first." and "Always heed the advice and orders of local officials during a storm." (FDEM, Know Your Zone).
Tornado room. "At Your House: If you are in a tornado warning, go to your basement, safe room, or an interior room away from windows. Don't forget pets if time allows." (NWS, What to do During a Tornado). FDEM's supply kit checklist lists "Flashlights" and "Batteries", and says "Do not use candles" (FDEM supply kit checklist).
Manufactured homes and RVs. "Sheds and storage facilities are not safe. Neither is a mobile home or tent." (NWS, What to do During a Tornado). "If in a mobile home, a vehicle, or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris." (NWS, Understand Tornado Alerts).
Alerts. "WEA messages include a special tone and vibration, both repeated twice." (NWS, Wireless Emergency Alerts). FDEM says: "Be sure to sign up for emergency weather alerts in your area. To do this, visit our AlertFlorida page." (FDEM, Plan and Prepare). The FDEM kit checklist lists "NOAA Weather Radio Battery operated or hand cranked" (FDEM supply kit checklist).
Numbers. FDEM publishes "County Emergency Management Websites" in its county directory. For sandbags, Pinellas County says: "Pinellas County does not offer year-round sandbag distribution sites." and "Check with your municipality for updates about sandbag distribution events or purchase them from your local hardware store (Some hardware stores offer them online)." (Pinellas County). The 211 site says "Call 211 for Essential Community Services" and "211 connects you to expert, caring help." (211.org).
Insurance. See "Insurance in one paragraph" below.

Within 2 weeks

Water. The FDEM supply kit checklist lists "1 gallon per person per day" (FDEM supply kit checklist). The checklist page shows the quantity for a family of four.
Food. The FDEM supply kit checklist lists "Nonperishable packaged or canned food and beverages, snack foods, juices, baby food, and any special dietary items to last at least 7 days" and a "Non-electric can opener" (FDEM supply kit checklist).
Carbon monoxide. "Install battery-operated or battery back-up CO detectors near every sleeping area in your home." "Only use generators outside, more than 20 feet away from any windows, doors, and vents." "The most common symptoms of CO poisoning are headache, dizziness, weakness, upset stomach, vomiting, chest pain, and confusion." (CDC, carbon monoxide). "If someone shows signs of having carbon monoxide poisoning, call 911 or your local Poison Control Center at 1-800-222-1222 or consult a health care professional right away." (CDC, power outages).
Medicines, medical equipment and help. The FDEM supply kit checklist lists "Two week minimum supply of medication, regularly used medical supplies, and a list of allergies" and "A list of the style, serial number, and manufacturer information of required medical devices" (FDEM supply kit checklist). FDEM says: "Register with the Special Needs Registry if you:" "Need electricity to operate medical equipment", "Need transportation to evacuate due to a medical condition" or "Need assistance in accessing medication during a disaster" (FDEM, Plan and Prepare). "Completing the Florida Special Needs Registry does not automatically qualify the individual for a special needs shelter." (see the Special Needs Registry page).
Fuel and documents. The FDEM supply kit checklist lists "Keep your motor vehicle tanks filled with gasoline", "Insurance cards" and "Medical records", and has the note "*Items should be kept in a water proof container" (FDEM supply kit checklist).

When a warning is issued

The words. "Flood Watch: Be Prepared: A Flood Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for a specific hazardous weather event to occur. A Flood Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for flooding." "Flood Warning: Take Action! A Flood Warning is issued when the hazardous weather event is imminent or already happening. A Flood Warning is issued when flooding is imminent or occurring." (NWS, Flood Watch vs Warning). More in Watch vs warning.
Flash flood. "Flash Flood Warning: Take Action! A Flash Flood Warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring. If you are in a flood prone area move immediately to high ground." (NWS, Flood Watch vs Warning).
Flood-prone areas and evacuation. "Get to Higher Ground: If you live in a flood prone area or are camping in a low lying area, get to higher ground immediately." "Obey Evacuation Orders: If told to evacuate, do so immediately." (NWS, During a Flood).
Tornado Warning. See the tornado steps above.

During

Flooded roads. "Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown!" "Don't walk through flood waters." "Stay out of water that may have electricity in it!" (NWS, During a Flood).
Outage food rule. "Keep refrigerator and freezer doors closed." "If the doors stay closed, food will stay safe up to: 4 hours in a refrigerator, 48 hours in a full freezer, 24 hours in a half-full freezer." (CDC, food safety after an emergency).
Keeping warm. "Never use a gas range or oven to heat a home." "If conditions are too hot or too cold, seek shelter with friends or at a community shelter." (CDC, power outages).
Generators. "Never use a generator or other gasoline-powered engines inside your home." (CDC, power outages).

After

"Do not enter a flood damaged home or building until you're given the All Clear by authorities." "Make sure the electrical system has been turned off. Have the power company or a qualified electrician fix wires." (NWS, After a Flood).
FPL says: "If you see a downed power line or other damaged electrical equipment, be sure to stay far away and immediately call 911 or FPL at 1-800-4OUTAGE (1-800-468-8243)." (FPL, power line safety). Tampa Electric says: "To report a downed or damaged power line, call 911 and then call us at 877-588-1010." (Tampa Electric).

Alerts and who to call

| For | Contact, as printed on the source | Source | |---|---|---| | Carbon monoxide poisoning | "call 911 or your local Poison Control Center at 1-800-222-1222" | CDC | | State information line | "The SAIL hotline is: 1-800-342-3557." "The SAIL hotline is only operational during an emergency event; at all other times, a recorded message with general information about the hotline is available." | FDEM | | Community services | "Call 211 for Essential Community Services" | 211.org | | Power outage: Florida Power & Light | "To report an outage, please visit our Web Outage Reporting System or call 1-800-4OUTAGE (1-800-468-8243)." | FPL | | Power outage: Duke Energy Florida (news release) | "Customers can also report an outage by texting OUT to 57801 or by calling 800.228.8485." | Duke Energy Florida release | | Downed line: Tampa Electric | "To report a downed or damaged power line, call 911 and then call us at 877-588-1010." | Tampa Electric |

Duke Energy Florida's number is flagged in the gaps below.

Insurance in one paragraph

FloodSmart.gov, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) site, says: "Most homeowners and renters insurance does not cover flood damage." and "Your flood insurance coverage will go into effect 30 days after your date of purchase. There are four exceptions to this rule:" (FloodSmart, buy a policy). The Florida checklist page shows the NFIP date to check and what to check before you buy or renew.

More guides

Gaps we know about

FEMA flood-map lookup. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center did not respond to our check on 2026-11-05, so we give no link and no advice on mapped flood risk.
NFIP authority and status. FEMA's reauthorization page returned a bot-block (403) on 2026-11-05, so we cannot quote its current text. Confirm the current status with your insurer or agent.
Ready.gov and Red Cross pages. Both returned 403 on 2026-11-05 and are not cited. General kit and family-plan advice is covered only by the FDEM, NWS and CDC pages above.
Sandbags outside Pinellas County. We checked only Pinellas. For other counties we have no sandbag source.
Water quantity for a number of days. The 2022 FDEM kit checklist gives "1 gallon per person per day" but no number of days for water, so we state no water total. We also found no source for a flashlight position, phone alert settings, early transport for manufactured homes, or a "fresh air" step for carbon monoxide, so none is given.
A statewide Florida winter outlook. The only Florida rainfall and severe-weather lines we found come from the NWS Tallahassee El Niño page. The CPC discussion has no Florida-specific text. We do not give a Florida-wide flood or tornado probability.
Rip currents and El Niño. We found no official page linking the two, so the rip-current advice is general beach safety only.
Duke Energy Florida's number. It appears on a news release (as 800.228.8485), not on a Duke contact page we could read. Check Duke's own site before relying on it.
Evacuation zones for rain floods. Know Your Zone is a hurricane-season tool and we found no official page applying it to winter rain floods.
Costs. We list no prices on this page. The checklist page holds the cost figures.